Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
REITs weaknesses overdone
David Katz of Jefferies on January 11 commented on the financial prospects of REITs (real estate investment trusts).
“In the context that VICI and GLPI are principally the most stable business models in our coverage, the current moment implies more dynamism than expected for both and we believe the Street debate over positives and negatives for both companies should remain lively in the near term, Our view in short is the recent weakness in VICI (-15% since 9/30/25) is overdone, the valuation premium of VICI to GLPI (7%) may further narrow, but both are long-term BUYs.”
Accel Entertainment poised to take advantage of VGT legalization
David Bain of Texas Capital Securities on January 9 commented on the legalization of video gaming terminals in Chicago, and how this will affect Accel Entertainment.
“The new policy took effect January 01, 2026. Accel has an over 30% market share operating VGTs in Illinois, with over 2,700 locations and 15,734 units. It has substantial personnel to work with individual bar licenses/setups and inventory (new, refurbished games) making it ready to go in Chicago with a potential highly profitable roll out. While there are still details to be determined, we believe ACEL could exit CY27E with an over $100 million run-rate in Chicago.”
Las Vegas Strip EBITDAR lowered
Daniel Politzer of J.P. Morgan on January 9 wrote about lowering the fourth quarter 2025 EBITDAR Las Vegas Strip estimate to $702 million, 2.5% below the company’s and the Street’s prior estimate of $720 million.
“Our $702 million equates to an 8% year-over-year EBITDAR decline, less bad than 3Q’s ~12% decline (net of adjustments), but another downward revision, nonetheless. For October/November, Las Vegas Strip visitation is tracking down 5% year-over-year and revenue per available room is down 6% year-over-year, while gaming demand remains stable with GGR tracking up 3.5% year-over-year.”
Maine poised to take advantage of igaming
Barry Jonas of Truist Securities on January 8 looked at the legalization of igaming in Maine.
“Maine is set to become the 8th state with legal igaming given its governor announced this afternoon that a proposed bill favoring local tribes would pass into law. The move comes as a surprise; and though modest, it is a welcome one for Buy-rated DraftKings and Caesars. Both look set to have exclusively rights to offer igaming on top of their existing online sports betting partnerships. It’s unclear if more digital operators could gain access in the future, but for now we assume all others could be shut out. Consensus thinking has been there would be no igaming legalizations this year, and it will be interesting to see if Maine is a one-off or a sign of more to come.”
