Wall Street Bets is a roundup of recent notes from analysts covering the gambling industry.
Gaming industry trends
Truist Securities’ Barry Jonas on November 24 commented on his company’s recent GLL Summit.
“Prediction markets were the hottest topic,” Jonas wrote, “as DraftKings detailed plans to launch shortly while omnichannel players wait and see as the online sports betting giants break the ice. (Las Vegas) Strip trends are improving sequentially, though not primed yet for solid growth, which is more how the Regionals feel. Further, we’re seeing/hearing a pickup in M&A discussions – boosting the REIT outlook, in our view.
“While 2025 hasn’t been a great year in our coverage for several reasons, we think some companies could bounce off recent lows. We specifically see less risks for the digital B2B players (e.g., Buy-rated Sportsradar & Genius Sports).”
Macau insights
David Katz of Jefferies, in a November 22 note, looked at Macau.
“We view the Macau government’s 2026 GGR forecast of MOP236B ($29.4 billion) as conservative in nature and modestly negative for shares,” Katz wrote. “It likely sets a floor for expectations, but the cautious tone suggests the high single digit percentage year-over-year GGR expected by the Street for 2025 is unsustainable. We’ve updated our revenue outlook for the remainder of 2025 and 2026, now expecting year-over-year growth of 9.1% and 3.6%, respectively.”
Genius Sports outlook
B Riley Securities’ Josh Nichols reaffirmed the company’s conviction in Buy-rated Genius Sports ($14 price target).
“The company’s strong operating performance was amplified by several sector headwinds facing its B2C customers, including structural hold deterioration and general prediction market threat concerns,” Nichols wrote on November 19. “The market is incorrectly treating Genius as a transaction-based sportsbook proxy when the business is fundamentally a data and technology platform provider with contracted recurring revenue, minimal betting outcome exposure, and exclusive content relationships locked through 2029/2030.”
Online operators
Macquarie’s Chad Beynon on November 19 shared insights about online operators, writing that most “beat Street expectations in 3Q with the exception of DraftKings (bad NFL outcomes) and Gambling.com (business transition). In terms of underlying trends, operators spoke to healthy customer engagement and efficient acquisition with ongoing momentum in igaming. Prediction markets continue to be a major topic, but we maintain our view that this threat has been exaggerated and that prediction products will not be competitive given inferior parlay and in-play. DraftKings and FanDuel (Flutter) are pushing ahead with upcoming launches into prediction markets.”