Foot traffic at regional United States casinos dipped 1.7 percent in November from 2024. Even so, Jefferies Equity Research analyst David Katz, in a December 9 investor note, felt it “should offer a positive readthrough” to statewide gambling-revenue numbers.
Although casino attendance was down 15.1 percent from 2019, Katz reported the revenue continued to trend higher than six years previous. November was also the third-best month for casino foot traffic in 2025.
Calendar shifts had little impact on the outcome. True, November had one more Sunday, but also one less Friday, evening out the number of weekdays.
Year to date, casino attendance is trending down 4.8 percent from 2024. The best month was May, which saw a 2.5 percent surge in patronage.
“Despite the decline, regional [revenue] numbers have continued the strong trend we’ve seen since the late spring,” wrote Katz. “Still, we anticipate trends will remain on trend into year-end, as comparisons have started to ease vs. prior-year levels.”
Katz even found an upside in the large shortfall in attendance when compared to 2019. He felt this showed untapped potential for new products. In particular, he cited the new Hollywood Joliet in Illinois and Churchill Downs’ Roseshire slot parlor in Virginia. Katz felt these “should be positive drivers for traffic trends balanced by the gray games and other competitive forces impacting the sector.”
New Hampshire was seen as impinging on Massachusetts casinos, where attendance was down 1.4 percent from 2024 and 11.3 percent from 2019. By contrast, Pennsylvania casinos were up 2.5 in November and were seeing 28.9 percent more visitation than in late 2019.
Atlantic City slumped two percent from 2024 and 18.3 percent from 2019. In Illinois, casinos experienced 11.3 less patronage than in 2024 and were down 26.5 percent behind 2019.
“Our take is that the monthly performance reflects the volatile path toward the normalization of traffic trends post-COVID, as well as the heightened competition and renovations in specific locations,” Katz deduced.
Disruption for construction in downtown Detroit was blamed for slippage in that market. Foot traffic was off 3.5 percent from 2024 and 27.6 percent from before the pandemic.
An infusion of new gambling into Kentucky thwarted an apples-to-apples comparison with 2019. However, year-over-year growth was 1.3 percent. In Black Hawk, Colorado, casino patronage leapt 15.9 percent from 2024.
“We continue to believe regional gaming is better positioned for modest growth in the near term compared to Las Vegas, where expectations for the Strip remain muted given the visitation concerns,” Katz summarized. He looked to Wynn Resorts to be the best Las Vegas Strip performer, given its focus on premium customers.
Regionally, Katz favored Churchill Downs, liking its growth prospects at The Rose casino and Roseshire (both in Virginia). He looked for additional potency from Churchill Downs’s casino in Salem, New Hampshire, as well as from the installation of electronic table games in Kentucky early in 2026.
Katz ended by joining the ranks of analysts fretful about Caesars Entertainment’s ability to cover its regional master lease. There, Katz closed, “Pressures of lease coverage against share losses have become prominent.”